International trade is under pressure. The latest results from Grant Thornton’s International Business Report (IBR) show a decline in confidence among internationally active SMEs. One factor stands out: the rise of trade barriers, such as import duties. After decades of increasing globalisation, the world is shifting towards a more fragmented trade landscape. But what do the numbers tell us. And what does this mean in practice?
At the end of 2024, international SMEs were still optimistic. According to the research, 54.6% of businesses aimed to expand their exports, and just over half (50.3%) expected revenue growth beyond their national borders. But sentiment shifted early in 2025. With rising global tensions, business confidence declined for the first time in two years. Dropping by 2.9 percentage points to 72.7% worldwide.
In the Netherlands, this hesitancy also became apparent, with confidence falling to 61.9%. Yet the fundamentals remain solid. Agility and strategic insight still form the backbone of the SME sector.
The recent wave of new duties was both unexpected and unprecedented in scale. The OECD has warned that these measures could dampen global growth. What started as isolated actions has evolved into a complex trade environment with ever-shifting rules. The disruption is tangible for internationally operating businesses.
The EU has responded to US import duties with countermeasures, including additional tariffs on products such as whisky and vehicles. This highlights the growing uncertainty for businesses reliant on the US as a trading partner, as political and economic tensions between the two blocs continue to rise.
As traditional export markets shift, businesses are faced with a stark reality: the new rules of the game could fundamentally alter their growth trajectory. To succeed now, companies must not only extract more value from their home markets but also rethink their regional strategies.
In the Netherlands, sectors such as horticulture and the chemical industry are particularly exposed to import duties. Especially when it comes to raw materials sourced from countries like China and the US. These businesses are seeing higher costs and longer lead times, putting pressure on margins.
SMEs are resilient. Past crises often opened new opportunities abroad. Today, import duties limit that space. A moment of reflection is needed: which markets remain viable, and is your current model future-proof? A sharp risk analysis is essential. Identify vulnerabilities, reconfigure your supply chain, and reassess your position in emerging markets.
In times of change, the strengths of SMEs come to the fore: clear choices, agility, and entrepreneurial leadership. Many businesses now deliberately choose to concentrate on fewer markets with greater potential. Globally, market spread dropped by 3.7 percentage points to 47.8%. In the Netherlands, 35.7% of businesses now actively focus on fewer, higher-potential markets. This targeted approach creates more control, enables more efficient use of resources, and enhances agility when facing new trade barriers.
Sometimes, this means halting exports to markets where duties push costs too high. Or it requires revising contracts, adjusting payment structures, or reorganising logistics. These are not easy decisions—but they are necessary to safeguard continuity.
By the end of 2024, a clear shift had already emerged: nearly a quarter of European SMEs (24.1%) reported prioritising supply chain disruption preparedness. This is no coincidence. It reflects experience, and the willingness to act now.
Dutch exporters, particularly in agriculture and technology, must prepare for higher import costs due to the new duties. This tends to erode margins, putting pressure on businesses to either adjust prices or explore markets where costs are less restrictive.
The only constant? Change. Import duties are just one piece of the puzzle. Digitalisation, AI, cybersecurity, climate regulation, and demographic shifts also demand adaptability.
But those who can hold their own under the strain of global trade tensions will also have the tools to embrace broader change.
In the Netherlands, we’re seeing a clear shift in how companies structure their supply chains. The increased uncertainty, caused by import duties and geopolitical tensions, is driving entrepreneurs to diversify and reduce reliance on any single region. According to the 2024 National SME Risk Management Monitor, 28% of Dutch SMEs aim to actively spread their supply chains across multiple regions to reduce exposure. This opens up opportunities to strengthen risk management strategies and operate more flexibly, resulting in a more resilient business model.
As long as global trade remains under pressure, uncertainty will be a given. But for those who look ahead, this climate also offers opportunities. With sharp scenario planning and clear decisions, SMEs can unexpectedly emerge as the winners.
Would you like to explore what this means for your business? Get in touch, we’d be happy to think along with you.
